Three fixed-threshold markets, picked from target share, touchdown rates and matchup data, posted before kickoff and graded by hit rate the morning after.
Fixed thresholds, posted before kickoff, graded against the box score. Every official pick is public and every result is kept.
Running backs, receivers and tight ends by touchdown rate. Quarterbacks by the probability of two or more passing scores. A receptions threshold set per player from his recent catch rate.
Every rule is run week by week over past seasons, using only the data that would have been available at the time, before it is used on a live card.
Thursday cards cover games before Sunday. Saturday cards cover Sunday and Monday. Players who do not play are excluded; everything else counts.
This week's official card. The full dashboard has the boards behind every pick and last week's results.
Open the dashboard. See this week's picks and last week's results.
Open NFL Dashboard